US Monthly Market Review - March 2024

The U.S. economy remains robust, with GDP growth of 3.2% in Q4 2023 and continued strong job growth, though inflation pressure persists. The housing and mortgage market has seen some signs of recovery, with home sales ticking up slightly in January 2024 due to lower mortgage rates, though inventory remains tight.

Home prices continue to rise, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index showing a 6% year-over-year jump in January 2024, the fastest annual rate since 2022. However, experts predict a "flat stretch" ahead for home prices, as the market finds a balance between high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and low inventory. 

Forecasts from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and other economists suggest home sales will increase in 2024 compared to 2023, though likely not dramatically as mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6%.[4] Inventory constraints are expected to persist, keeping the market tilted in favor of sellers.

While a housing market crash is considered unlikely, experts warn that affordability challenges from high prices and rates will continue to be a barrier for many buyers. Factors like Millennial homebuyers, wage growth, and financial wealth may help sustain housing demand in 2024.

Overall, the 2024 U.S. housing market is expected to see gradual improvement from the challenges of 2023, but significant affordability hurdles will remain for prospective homebuyers.